Phantom permits
121,000 approvals that never broke ground
Summary
A phantom permit is one the Planning Authority granted but the developer never officially commenced — no construction start filed, no recorded activity on site. By that definition, 121,780 of Malta's 161,913 approved PA permits are phantoms: only 24.8% have a recorded commencement date. Even in recent years where data is more reliable, roughly 1 in 4 approved permits from 2015–2022 were never acted on. Malta's planning system is not just deciding what gets built — it's producing a vast surplus of theoretical development that never materialises.
Commencement is logged in the PA database as a separate event after approval. Pre-2015 commencement records are sparse (likely under-reporting), so the headline phantom rate is driven by 2015-onwards data. See methodology for limitations.
Key findings
Commencement rates by year
| Year filed | Approved | Commenced | Commenced % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 4,150 | 217 | 5.2% |
| 2012 | 3,109 | 245 | 7.9% |
| 2014 | 3,709 | 883 | 23.8% |
| 2015 | 4,721 | 2,599 | 55.1% |
| 2016 | 5,653 | 4,416 | 78.1% |
| 2017 | 6,007 | 4,757 | 79.2% |
| 2018 | 6,071 | 4,672 | 77.0% |
| 2019 | 5,536 | 4,277 | 77.3% |
| 2020 | 5,182 | 3,893 | 75.1% |
| 2021 | 5,801 | 4,209 | 72.6% |
| 2022 | 4,971 | 3,308 | 66.5% |
| 2023 | 4,880 | 2,812 | 57.6% |
Commencement tracking appears to have become reliable from around 2015 onwards (pre-2015 rates are implausibly low, likely reflecting incomplete data). Even in the best years (2016–2017), roughly 1 in 5 approved permits were never commenced. By 2022, the uncommenced rate had risen to 1 in 3.
The 2023 figure (57.7%) likely reflects a lag — permits filed in 2023 may still be within their validity period. But the declining trend from 2017's 79.2% to 2022's 66.6% is notable even accounting for this.
Phantom permits by project type (2015–2020)
| Category | Approved | Not commenced | Phantom rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offices | 1,285 | 435 | 33.9% |
| Shops/Retail | 1,507 | 486 | 32.2% |
| Sanctioning (other) | 4,706 | 1,348 | 28.6% |
| Restaurants | 309 | 86 | 27.8% |
| Other | 10,294 | 2,841 | 27.6% |
| Garages | 4,960 | 1,269 | 25.6% |
| Hotels | 262 | 65 | 24.8% |
| Dwellings | 3,080 | 726 | 23.6% |
| Pools | 1,543 | 329 | 21.3% |
| Apartments | 5,224 | 971 | 18.6% |
Offices and retail have the highest phantom rates — roughly one in three approved office or shop permits are never commenced. This likely reflects speculative applications: developers securing permission to test the market, or property owners obtaining permits to increase their land's paper value without intending to build.
Apartments have the lowest phantom rate (18.6%), suggesting that when someone gets permission to build apartments, they're more likely to actually do it — consistent with Malta's strong housing demand.
Sanctioning permits: built but never "commenced"
A curious finding: 28.6% of sanctioning permits — which legalize already-built structures — have no commencement date. The building already exists, yet the permit was never formally commenced. This suggests either an administrative gap in tracking, or applicants who obtained the sanctioning permit but never followed through with the final compliance steps.
By application type
| Application type | Approved | Commenced | Commenced % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outline development permission | 308 | 5 | 1.6% |
| Renewal of development permission | 1,252 | 434 | 34.7% |
| Amended development permission | 258 | 150 | 58.1% |
| Full development permission | 55,606 | 37,423 | 67.3% |
Outline permissions are almost never commenced (1.6%) — which makes sense, as they're preliminary approvals that require a full application before construction begins. But the 65.3% uncommenced rate for renewals is striking: two-thirds of renewed permits are never acted on, suggesting developers are hoarding permits by renewing them repeatedly without building.
ODZ vs WDZ: no difference
Filter: cases with decision = 'Grant Permission' or 'Acceptable' and receptionDate between 2015 and 2022, grouped by the caseCategory field that the PA records as "Outside Development Zone" or "Within Development Zone".
| Zone | Approved | Commenced % |
|---|---|---|
| Outside Development Zone | 7,812 | 73.8% |
| Within Development Zone | 46,935 | 73.6% |
The commencement rate is virtually identical whether the project is inside or outside the development zone. ODZ permits — which are harder to obtain — are no more likely to actually be built.
Architects with the highest phantom rates (200+ permits, 2015–2022)
| Architect | Approved | Uncommenced | Phantom % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perit Cornelia Tabone | 267 | 135 | 50.6% |
| Dr Edwin Mintoff | 597 | 230 | 38.5% |
| Perit Stephen Farrugia | 218 | 81 | 37.2% |
| Perit Chris Cachia | 535 | 184 | 34.4% |
| Perit David Vassallo | 228 | 78 | 34.2% |
| Perit Joseph Attard | 255 | 86 | 33.7% |
| Perit Gilbert Bartolo | 259 | 83 | 32.0% |
| Perit Elena Borg Costanzi | 211 | 67 | 31.8% |
| Falzon & Cutajar | 993 | 314 | 31.6% |
| Perit Paul Camilleri | 302 | 95 | 31.5% |
One architect has a 50.6% phantom rate — more than half the permits they obtain are never commenced. Falzon & Cutajar, one of Malta's most prolific firms (993 approved permits in this period), has a 31.6% phantom rate — 314 approved projects that never broke ground.
Why this matters
Phantom permits represent a hidden cost to Malta's planning system. Every application that goes through the full assessment process — case officer review, public consultation, board hearing — consumes administrative resources. When a quarter or more of approved permits are never used, it means the planning system is doing significant work for developments that will never exist. More importantly, phantom permits can be used strategically: to inflate property values, to block competing developments on adjacent sites, or to "bank" development rights for future use. The system assesses each application as if it will be built, but the data shows that many are speculative from the start.